Moments of political crisis can dramatically shift online engagement patterns. This is the main conclusion of a study from the University of Cambridge. Specifically, although political hostility toward rivals typically dominates social media virality, researchers found that solidarity-focused posts suddenly received far greater traction when leadership stability was threatened during the 2024 United States election season.
From Outgroup Hostility to Ingroup Solidarity: How Political Crises Transform Social Media Virality
The Decision-Making Lab of the University of Cambridge collected and examined over 62000 public Facebook posts from hundreds of politicians, commentators, and media outlets. These posts surrounded two dramatic events in July 2024: the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and Joe Biden announcing the suspension of his reelection campaign only days later.
Earlier studies showed that opponent-critical messages attract the most attention during ordinary political discourse. Outgroup hostility, expressed via anger and outrage, has usually functioned as the most effective driver of shares, reactions, and comments. The researchers discovered that these dynamics underwent a striking reversal during extraordinary events.
After the attempted assassination of Trump on July 13, Republican-aligned posts expressing unity and solidarity received 53 percent more engagement compared with non-solidarity posts. This represented an increase of 17 percentage points relative to the pre-event period, while posts attacking Democrats dropped 23 percentage points in engagement.
Democrat-aligned accounts showed a parallel surge after Biden announced his withdrawal from the presidential race. Posts praising his legacy and reinforcing party cohesion gained 91 percent more engagement than non-solidarity posts. The rise, equal to 71 percentage points compared with pre-withdrawal levels, illustrated a collective rally around group identity.
Underlying partisan differences in tone remained despite the crisis shifting which content went viral. Conservative-aligned accounts still generated more hostility than liberal-aligned accounts, with nearly one quarter of social media posts from Republicans coded as hostile compared to about 5 percent of posts from Democrats during the studied period.
Examples showed the difference between solidarity and hostile content. Franklin Graham praised divine intervention for Trump, while Laura Ingraham lauded his resilience. On the Democratic side, Robert Reich emphasized Biden as a pro-worker president, and Nancy Pelosi reinforced his positive legacy, reflecting loyalty and appreciation rather than antagonism.
The study also situated these findings within broader comparative research. A previous Cambridge analysis of Ukrainian social media during the Russian invasion in 2022 found a similar surge in solidarity content. Pro-unity messages gained 92 percent more engagement on Facebook and 68 percent more on Twitter during the initial invasion period.
Researchers interpret these results as evidence of rally-round-the-flag behavior translated to the digital sphere. To be specific, when groups perceive or encounter existential threats or leadership instability, members are more motivated to post and share affirmations of unity, identity, and loyalty rather than pursue antagonistic attacks on rival factions.
The study has wider implications for political communication and social media platforms. It indicates that online behavior is not fixed but context-dependent. While hostility dominates in calm political times, crises activate strong collective emotions, prompting solidarity posts to become dominant in engagement dynamics, temporarily rewriting the rules of virality.
FURTHER READINGS AND REFERENCES
- Kyrychenko, Y., Brik, T., van der Linden, S., and Roozenbeek, J. 2024. “Social Identity Correlates of Social Media Engagement Before and After the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine.” Nature Communications. 15(1). DOI: 1038/s41467-024-52179-8
- Rathje, S., Van Bavel, J. J., and Van der Linden, S. 2021. “Out-group Animosity Drives Engagement on Social Media.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 118(26). DOI: 1073/pnas.2024292118
- University of Cambridge. 26 August 2025. “Trump Shooting and Biden Exit Flipped Social Media from Hostility to Solidarity.” University of Cambridge Research. University of Cambridge. Available online