The frequency and intensity of plane turbulence have significantly increased. Findings from a 2023 analysis by researchers M. C. Prosser et al. of the University of Reading revealed that severe or greater clear-air turbulence or CAT over the North Atlantic climbed from 17.7 hours per year in 1979 to 27.4 hours per year in 2020. This is a 55 percent increase. Moderate CAT also increased by 37 percent, or from 70 hours per year to 96.1 hours per year, during the same observation period. Several studies have investigated the reason behind this phenomenon.
Understanding Why and How Climate Change is Not Only Increasing but Also Making Plane Turbulence Worse Than Ever
Understanding Turbulence
There are three types and causes of turbulence. The first is convective turbulence. It is caused by rising and falling air in thunderstorms. Air flowing over mountains causes orographic turbulence. The third is clear-air turbulence or CAT. It is the hardest to avoid because it occurs in the jet stream or the fast-flowing air current in the upper troposphere without visual cues.
Plane turbulence is most common along major jet stream corridors, storm-prone regions, and areas with mountainous terrain. The North Atlantic corridor, North Pacific routes, and areas in East and Southeast Asia often experience clear-air turbulence due to fast-flowing air currents emerging from various local weather conditions and a combination of other factors.
Studies indicate a significant rise in CAT affecting commercial flights worldwide. Severe incidents increased by 55 percent based on data from 1979 to 2020. Further findings showed that jet stream strengthening is a main driver of clear-air turbulence frequency. Other studies have investigated the reason behind the increasing frequency and intensity of plane turbulence.
Effects of Climate Change
Scientists attribute the increase in the frequency and intensity of plane turbulence to climate change because of how it alters wind patterns and weather conditions. This conclusion is derived from a combination of historical data, climate models, and atmospheric physics. The following explains the link between climate change and plane turbulence frequency and intensity:
• Uneven Atmospheric Warming: The Earth is warming overall. However, this warming is uneven. The tropics and subtropics are heating more rapidly at flight cruising altitudes of 30 to 40 thousand feet than the polar regions. This creates stronger temperature gradients between north and south at those heights, which then drive wind speed differences. Greater gradients mean stronger wind shear. This drives clear-air turbulence.
• Stronger Jet Streams: The narrow bands of fast-moving air currents or jet streams are crucial for long-haul flights. However, because warming increases the temperature difference between air masses, these streams become faster and more erratic, and wind speed contrasts grow sharper. This intensifies vertical and horizontal wind shear in which air layers move at different speeds or directions, and causes more clear-air turbulence.
• More Moisture and Stronger Storms: A warmer atmosphere holds about 7 percent more water vapor per 1 degree Celsius rise. This leads to stronger thunderstorms with violent updrafts and downdrafts. Planes then encounter more convective turbulence from storm or cumulonimbus clouds. This type of turbulence is more common in tropical and subtropical regions like the Amazon Basin, Central Africa, and South and Southeast Asia.
• Shifts in Atmospheric Layers: Climate change is causing tropopause lifting. This means that the boundary between the troposphere and stratosphere is rising. Warm temperature expands the troposphere and causes it to rise higher. The entire phenomenon not only causes stronger thunderstorms but also shifts the altitude and structure of jet streams. Turbulent zones sometimes move to flight cruising levels that used to be calmer.
Notable Implications
The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board recorded more than 200 severe injuries since 2019 due to plane turbulence. Most of these incidents affected the flight crew. The increase in the frequency and intensity of plane turbulence could lead to an increase in in-flight accidents. The phenomenon also has economic costs and environmental implications. Take note of the following:
• Passenger Safety and Comfort: Severe turbulence can cause passengers and crew to be thrown from their seats. A January 2025 YouGov poll showed that over 20 percent of U.S. adults have a fear of riding planes. Worsening turbulence can heighten this fear. Deaths are rare but can become more probable due to unpredictable turbulence.
• Airline Operations Impact: Avoiding turbulence often forces reroutes. This crowds the airspace and increases pilot and air traffic controller workload. In-flight services are halted or modified to respond to turbulence. Repeated exposure to turbulence accelerates wear on the fuselage and wings, requiring more frequent inspections.
• Financial Costs of Turbulence: Post-turbulence plane inspections and repairs incur costs between USD 180000 and 1.5 million per year per airline. Passenger compensations and other rerouting expenses increase operational costs. A continuous rise in plane turbulence incidents could lead to higher aviation-related insurance rates.
• Notable Environmental Impact: Reroutes around turbulence-producing storms and areas add distance. A report from the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation or Eurocontrol revealed that reroutes due to turbulence resulted in an additional 1 million kilometers flown and about 19000 tons of carbon emissions in 2019.
There are also broader industry implications. Increased costs could affect fares and schedules if rerouting becomes common due to increasing turbulence frequency and intensity. Airlines may reconsider high-turbulence corridors during peak seasons. A change in perceptions of flight comfort and safety may occur as air travel becomes less smooth overall.
Note that findings by Prosser et al. further showed that the frequency of severe clear-air turbulence at typical cruise altitudes could increase by over 180 percent over the North Atlantic, more than 160 percent over Europe, over 110 percent over North America, more than 90 percent over North Pacific, and about 60 percent across much of routes in East, South, and Southeast Asia.
Moreover, based on data from S&P Global, turbulence-related costs in the U.S. airline industry alone could approach USD 300 million to USD 70 million each year by 2050. Fuel waste due to turbulence-driven flight diversion might also exceed 300 million gallons per year and contribute further to an additional 3 million tons of annual carbon emissions.
FURTHER READINGS AND REFERENCES
- Prosser, M. C., Williams, P. D., Marlton, G. J., and Harrison, R. G. 2023. “Evidence for Large Increases in Clear‐Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades.” Geophysical Research Letters. 50(11). DOI: 1029/2023gl103814
- 31 January 2025. “How Do You Feel About Flying in an Airplane?” YouGov. Available online
- Watson, F. 28 July 2021. “Interview: Climate Change-Fueled Air Turbulence Set to Hike Jet Fuel Demand: Scientist.” Commodity Insight. S&P Global. Available online.