Sudan has been struggling with sociopolitical unrest and even violent armed conflicts since gaining independence in 1956. These include two civil wars from 1955 to 1972 and 1983 to 2005 between the central government and factions in its southern regions. The more recent civil war began on 15 April 2023 and revolved around two rival factions of the Sudanese military government. These are the Sudanese Armed Forces, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.
A Straightforward Explanation of the Causes of the Sudanese Civil War
A fragile alliance built for political convenience has collapsed into one of the most devastating civil wars in global history. The national army of Sudan and its once-loyal paramilitary partner now battle for survival, sovereignty, and the right to define the political future of the nation.
The Rise of Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces to Power and the Subsequent Conflict Between These Two Factions
The Sudanese Armed Forces or SAF and the Rapid Support Forces or RSF were once allies that served the interests of long-time president Omar al-Bashir. Note that al-Bashir served between 1989 and 2019. He built and maintained various security forces to ensure that no single armed force was independent and strong enough to threaten his leadership.
RSF was established as a paramilitary in 2013 from the Arab militias called Janjaweed. It was an armed force outside the influence of the SAF and was positioned as a rapid-deployment group for internal security and fighting insurgencies. The RSF was a counterweight to the SAF, headed by a commander who was dependent on the president.
However, following the widespread pro-democracy protests in 2019, both SAF and RSF were key partners in the 2019 military coup that trounced al-Bashir. The two, under the leadership of al-Burhan and Dagalo, also staged a second coup in October 2021 to dismantle the remaining civilian components of the transitional government and solidify their joint rule.
The current conflict, which began in April 2023, is a power struggle for control of Sudan and its future, stemming from disagreements that emerged during the planned transition back to civilian rule. The primary cause is a disagreement over the plan to integrate the RSF into the SAF. This plan comes from international and domestic pressure.
Note that SAF wanted the integration to happen as soon as possible, while the RSF pushed for a much longer and more gradual process to protect its autonomy. The power struggle between their leaders, al-Burhan of SAF and Dagalo of RSF, became more pronounced. Both wanted to maintain ultimate authority over the newly merged force.
There are several reasons why neither SAF nor RSF leadership wants to give way. The leader who will control the new armed forces will become the de facto ruler of Sudan. This leadership also translates to control over the revenue-generating gold mining sector of the country. The RSF currently controls most of the gold mines across Sudan.
Historically Weak National Institutions Due to Power Centralization That Has Resulted in Marginalization and Power Struggles
Sudan has long struggled with governance issues. Specifically, since gaining its independence, it has grappled with weak national institutions because power has historically been concentrated in the hands of the Arab-Muslim elite in the capital city of Khartoum. This has resulted in the political and economic exclusion of peripheral regions and rebellions.
The country has an ethnically diverse population, but it is generally divided into two main cultural spheres. These are the Arab and non-Arab African groups. The distinction between the Arab populations of the northern and central regions and the diverse African ethnic groups in the west, east, and south has shaped the Sudanese political affairs.
Arabs migrated to Sudan during the 9th century due to economic motives. Their population soon grew enough to gain influence, promote Islam, and advance Arabic culture. The Turco-Egyptian conquest in 1821 and the Anglo-Egyptian Condominium from 1899 to 1956 were instrumental in creating a centralized administrative state centered on Khartoum.
Nevertheless, after Sudan gained independence in 1956, power was inherited by the Arab-Muslim political and military elite in the north who were trained and favored by the British administration. Successive governments in Khartoum, regardless of being civilian or military, pursued a national identity anchored on Arabic culture and promotion of Islam.
The widespread Arabization and Islamization in Sudan triggered resistance from African ethnic groups and Christians. The imposition of Sharia law in 1983 directly contributed to the outbreak of the Second Sudanese Civil War in the South. Decades of conflict created a landscape filled with militias, government-backed paramilitaries, and rebel groups.
Disputes over natural resources like fertile land, water, and oil reserves have historically been a source of violence and have intensified conflicts among various groups. These include tension between nomadic herders and settled farmers and disagreement over oil revenues between the central government and resource-rich regions in the south.
A Note on the Current Developments in the Current Civil War in Sudan
The ongoing battle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces reflects a deeper crisis: a country caught between competing power centers, an unfinished revolution, and unresolved tensions dating back to the militarized political structure of the al-Bashir era.
The ongoing internal armed conflict in Sudan, aside from mass violence and displacement, has exacerbated persistent problems like poverty, water scarcity, and famine. The scale of the humanitarian disaster is among the most severe globally right now. It is worth mentioning that both state and non-state actors have noted extensive human rights crimes.
It is worth mentioning that the RSF is advancing its armed operations to consolidate territories and control resources. The group has recently seized control of El Fasher, capital of Darfur, in late October 2025, following an 18-month siege. RSF now controls all five state capitals in Darfur and gives them access to gold mines and critical trade routes.
Multiple reports from media organizations and international watchdogs have indicated pervasive incidents of mass killings, summary executions, sexual violence, and large-scale atrocities by RSF. The group has been using violence based on the wartime logic of intimidation and elimination of opposition to gain control and avoid potential opposition.
The SAF has been attempting to regain and hold territories across Sudan. It has succeeded in the capital city and neighboring areas. The group has also engaged in conventional warfare and has worked with allied militias and local self-defense groups in some regions to bolster its manpower and local control. It has stated its commitment to defeating RSF.
However, although it is not losing uniformly, there are several challenges and disadvantages facing the SAF. Decades of internal divisions and under-investments under Omar al-Bashir have left it with structural weaknesses. It is also more conventional compared to RSF. This limits its mobility and flexibility. The group also faces conflicts on multiple fronts.
The situation in Sudan is in a critical and deeply concerning phase. Over 14 million people have been displaced. More than 21 million people, or 45 percent of the population, are facing acute food insecurity. 4 in 5 children, or 14 million children, are out of school. Over 70 percent of hospitals in the country have been destroyed or are non-functional.
FURTHER READINGS AND REFERENCES
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. 15 April 2024. One Year of War in Sudan. Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. Available online
- Center for Preventive Action. 2025. “Civil War in Sudan.” Global Conflict Tracker. Council on Foreign Relations. Available online
- Roberts, L. 26 February 2025. “How Many Have Died in Sudan’s Civil War? Satellite Images and Models Offer Clues.” Science. American Association for the Advancement of Science. DOI: 1126/science.zvussc0
- The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. 2025. Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for the Sudan. The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. Available online
- 24 October 2025. “Sudan is the World’s Largest Humanitarian Crisis – and Children are Paying the Highest Price.” UNICEF. Available online
- World Health Organization. 21 March 2025. Sudan Conflict and Refugee Crisis: Multi-Country External Situation Report No. 9. World Health Organization. Available online