The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February 2022 reshaped every lever of political control within the Russian Federation. What began as an external campaign quickly evolved into the central organizing logic for Russian governance. Military logistics, budget, propaganda distribution, and elite management fused into one overriding national mission.
From Battlefield to Homefront: Domestic Security Risks Emerging Inside Russia After Its Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine
Russian attention may be fixed on Ukrainian battlefields, but the real danger is now unfolding behind its own lines, where political repression is replacing security strategy and regional loyalties are starting to fracture.
Overview and Key Findings
Note that the wartime transformation created a paradox within Russia. While officials projected strength abroad, domestic vulnerabilities widened beneath the surface. Counterterrorism capability eroded. Regional political stability weakened. Corruption compromised border readiness. A future wave of demobilized fighters loomed over public security.
Security expert Emily Ferris arrived at the aforesaid conclusion through a closed expert discussion group composed of experts in the North Caucasus, terrorism, Russian domestic politics, and Russian security. The analysis also drew information and insights from open-source materials and policy documents and statements from Russian officials.
The analysis revealed that the Russia-Ukraine war has produced multiple domestic security gaps across the Russian Federation. This comes from how the Russian government prioritized foreign or geopolitical affairs over domestic affairs. The risks remain manageable at present, but prolonged conflict could sharpen their severity. Below are the main findings:
• Erosion of Counterterrorism Efficiency: Russian intelligence agencies redirected focus toward internal dissent suppression rather than extremist tracking, which enabled attacks like the Crocus City Hall incident despite foreign warnings.
• Uncertain Chechen Political Transition: Ramzan Kadyrov has built unprecedented autonomy and wealth, but his potential departure lacks an agreed successor, raising the possibility of renewed instability within the North Caucasus.
• Corruption-Driven Border Vulnerability: Kursk incursions exposed massive and poor handling of civil defense funds, demonstrating that entrenched patronage networks directly weakened physical protection of Russian territory.
• Unpredictable Impact of Returning Veterans: Government programs attempt to contain demobilized fighters within loyal structures, yet unresolved grievances could evolve into either organized dissent or uncontrolled violence.
Expounding the Incidents and Risks
The Crocus City Hall massacre on 22 March 2024 in Moscow provided the most devastating warning. Gunmen linked to Islamic State Khorasan Province killed 145 civilians during a concert. United States intelligence agencies reportedly issued warnings. Iranian officials allegedly shared similar alerts. Russian security agencies dismissed them.
Russia redirected blame toward Ukraine and Western intelligence services during the live coverage of the incident. Media outlets amplified unsubstantiated theories rather than acknowledging operational lapses inside the Federal Security Service. It is worth mentioning that anti-terrorism priorities had shifted toward suppressing protest movements.
Moreover, in the rugged hills of Chechnya, regional strongman Ramzan Kadyrov has pledged unwavering support to Russian President Vladimir Putin. His Akhmat Special Forces supplied large numbers of fighters. Official casualty data remained undisclosed, but independent trackers estimated one of the highest provincial death rates nationwide.
Influential figures within Chechnya began redirecting financial assets into private enterprises outside traditional government structures by mid-2024. The prominent Kadyrov family acquired mineral water companies and construction holdings. Rumors surrounding the health of Kadyrov circulated widely. These are all linked to succession transition.
Meanwhile, along the Belgorod and Kursk fronts, corruption endangered national defense. Forces from Ukraine crossed into the Kursk region in June 2024. Russia regained territorial control only in April 2025. Investigations revealed that civilian volunteers remained unpaid and fortification projects used inferior materials from fraudulent contracts.
Governor Roman Starovoit of Kursk built connections with businesspeople like Arkady and Boris Rotenberg. Federal prosecutors then opened inquiries concerning regional defense funding. Starovoit allegedly died by suicide in July 2025. His downfall signaled that elite protection had limits once battlefield exposure heightened public scrutiny.
The final challenge in domestic security concerns the return of Russian combatants. Official data indicated that more than 700000 individuals rotated through Ukrainian battlefields. Putin ordered the expansion of the standing army to 1.5 million individuals. That further enlargement could absorb only a limited portion of discharged personnel.
Authorities introduced programs like the Military Brotherhood Movement and Time of Heroes to direct returning soldiers into government-aligned organizations. Independent advocacy networks like Soldiers’ Mothers faced legal restrictions. Several issues threaten to transform these former fighters into either criminal actors or political kingmakers.
FURTHER READING AND REFERENCE
- Ferris, E. 23 September 2025. How Russia’s War in Ukraine is Creating Domestic Security Gaps. Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies. Available online