As melting ice redraws the map in the Northern Hemisphere, the Arctic transforms into a stage for power competition that the West struggles to navigate. Every year of Western delay strengthens a regional order increasingly shaped by the endurance of Russia and the strategic patience of China.
The Arctic Crossroads: Why the West Faces a Strategic Dilemma in the Far North
Melting sea ice is opening new shipping routes, resource zones, fishing grounds, and new military waterways in the Arctic. This makes it a precarious geopolitical arena. Russia and China have been expanding their presence and control-related capabilities in the region because they consider it a long-term strategic frontier. Western countries are lagging behind.
Understanding the Importance of the Arctic
Advantageous control of the High North grants leverage over emerging sea lanes and critical resources that could redraw global politics and economics.
The Arctic holds a significant portion of the global untapped oil and gas reserves. A 2017 estimate by the United States Geological Survey suggests that about 13 percent of global undiscovered oil and 30 percent of undiscovered natural gas lie in the region. Note that Canada, Norway, Russia, and the United States are actively exploring these reserves.
Note that the climate and weather patterns in the region also make it ideal for renewable energy facilities. It has a strong potential for harnessing and maximizing wind, tidal, and hydroelectric power. Aside from energy-related industries, further developments in the Arctic could also result in other productive economic activities like fishing and tourism.
Moreover, aside from oil and gas, melting sea ice is opening new shipping routes. These include the Northern Sea Route along the coast of Russia and the Northwest Passage through the Canadian Arctic waters. The Northern Sea Route is a promising shipping route since it can reduce travel from Europe to Asia by up to 40 percent compared to the Suez Canal route.
Other critical resources in the Arctic are minerals and rare-earth elements. Greenland alone is estimated to have large deposits of rare earth elements and minerals like cobalt, iron, nickel, and uranium. A 2024 report by the Arctic Economic Council revealed that Norway and Sweden are home to one of the largest rare earth element deposits in the world.
The region is also a stage for power projection. Control over Arctic waters and sea lanes provides strategic advantages for surveillance, missile systems, and rapid response capabilities in most of the Northern Hemisphere. Russia has rebuilt bases along the Northern Fleet and Arctic coastline, while NATO members are monitoring Arctic maritime traffic.
Aggressive Arctic Push of Russia and China
Power in the Far North gravitates toward actors willing to build infrastructure before demand exists. Russia and China embrace this logic.
Russia is the dominant state actor in the Arctic, and it possesses the longest Arctic coastline. The leadership under Vladimir Putin has also treated the region as part of its core national priority. It has also rebuilt or reactivated over 50 Soviet-era bases. These include airfields, radar stations, and naval facilities for its Northern Fleet along the Northern Sea Route.
It also operates the largest icebreaker fleet in the world with at least 40 vessels. These include multiple nuclear-powered icebreakers. No other country has matched the capabilities of Russia in designing, building, and deploying nuclear-powered icebreakers. The entire icebreaker fleet gives it an unmatched control over Arctic shipping and navigation.
The military presence of Russia is also pronounced in the region. It has submarines that operate under polar ice. Russian radar networks and military districts cover the Northern Sea Route. Note that Russia has also plotted routes over the region for its hypersonic missiles. These capabilities have afforded it a dominant military position in the entire Arctic.
Moreover, due to Western economic sanctions, Russia has turned to capital and financial markets in China. China, while not an Arctic country, also seeks long-term strategic access to the region by investing in Russian capabilities. Chinese President Xi Jinping even announced in public back in 2014 the intention of his government to make China a polar power.
A white paper entitled the “Arctic Policy” published by the State Council Information Office of the Chinese government in February 2018 declared China as a near-Arctic state. This reframing is an indication of the role the country wishes to play in the region. Note that China has also sought to obtain membership in many international Arctic-related organizations.
Nevertheless, because the respective national interests of Russia and China have several points of convergence, the two countries have partnered to dominate the Arctic. China has invested in Russian energy projects in the region. These include the Yamal LNG and Arctic LNG 2 plants. It also built and maintained ice-class cargo ships and icebreakers.
Explaining the Dilemma of Western Countries
The West faces an uncomfortable realization. Influence in the High North now depends on capabilities that are expensive to build and slow to rationalize.
Controlling and exploiting the Arctic is challenging for Western countries. Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, argued and explained that these countries face an unacceptable choice in the region. Either they invest enormous resources with no guaranteed economic return or cede leadership and access to Russia and China.
Western countries like Canada, the United States, and those in the European Union require a fleet of icebreakers. Each costs between 1 billion and 2 billion U.S. dollars. They also need to build ports and facilities in remote areas in the region from scratch. Remember that Russia already has an effective fleet and existing Soviet-era facilities in the Arctic.
Establishing presence and capabilities in the Arctic is expensive because of challenges inherent in the environment. One example is the weather. The temperature requires dedicated equipment and materials. The changing climate also creates new hazards. Adding to these is the fact that the region has unpredictable weather patterns that can strain operations.
It is also worth mentioning that West-aligned Arctic countries are democracies that often face long and tedious approval cycles, environmental reviews, and divided political priorities. Long-term strategies often lose momentum due to shifting administrations, budget cuts, or domestic issues. Centralized planning in Russia and China accelerates Arctic investments.
The aforementioned countries need to catch up with Russia and China. A further delay could result in governance, trade, and security structures falling under the control of the Sino-Russian partnership. This means that the West could lose substantial influence over shipping or maritime navigation rules, resource access, energy flows, and regional geopolitical dynamics.
FURTHER READINGS AND REFERENCES
- Arctic Economic Council. 2024. Arctic Mining Report 2024. Arctic Economic Council. Available via PDF
- Humpert, Malte. 26 January 2028. “A New Cold War? China Declares Itself a Near-Arctic State.” The Arctic Institute – Center For Circumpolar Security Studies. Available online
- Pechko, K. 7 January 2025. “Rising Tensions and Shifting Strategies: The Evolving Dynamics of US Grand Strategy in the Arctic.” The Arctic Institute – Center For Circumpolar Security Studies. Available online