State age verification laws for adult websites surged across the United States in early 2023. This has prompted some platforms to block access in law-imposing states. Economist George S. Ford of the Phoenix Center examined this reaction to determine whether these mandates truly protect minors or instead generate unintended consequences. His findings are discussed in a white paper published on 12 November 2025.
The Hidden Constitutional Costs of Online Age Verification Laws
Analyses reveal that age-check mandates may undermine their own goals. Nevertheless, as circumvention rises and deterrence falls, researchers warn that these mandates may fail constitutional tests and create more harm than protection.
Increase in VPN Use and Substitution Effect
In states where adult platforms blocked access, user search behavior shifted immediately. Google Trends data from January 2022 through September 2025 showed rises in searches for VPN and free porn as users sought ways around geographic restrictions imposed in response to existing age verification laws enacted since mid-2023.
Ford observed a spike in VPN searches during the week that Pornhub enacted state-level blocks, with elevated interest lasting for nearly 20 weeks. This search engine trend demonstrated that many users attempted to bypass geo-specific restrictions rather than abandon adult content, thus showing further the reduced deterrent impact on minors.
Searches for free porn increased alongside VPN interest but displayed a persistent pattern without decline through the 36-week window. This persistence indicated that users continued to seek unregulated alternative platforms long after the initial block, thereby shifting consumption toward sites with fewer safeguards and data risks.
Ford also noted that greater VPN adoption carries security risks because many free services contain malware, leak IP addresses, or conduct tracking. Evidence in the study included projections that firms or developers offering free virtual private networks could reach malware rates near 39 percent and IP address leak rates above 84 percent.
Possible Concerns Over Constitutionality
Ford concluded that these laws may be ineffective because motivated minors can bypass blocks while adults encounter barriers and privacy risks. He recommended that policymakers examine device-level parental controls and conduct cost-benefit evaluations before expanding the law across additional states or digital platforms.
The main implication is the constitutionality of a particular age verification law in a state. One of the emerging arguments is that such would fail the constitutional cost-benefit tests. This comes from the fact that the law creates a barrier to the constitutional rights of adults to view or consume legal material. This cost likely outweighs the benefits of barring minors.
Ford argues that the constitutional cost-benefit balance tilts toward unconstitutionality when the burdens placed on lawful adult access exceed the protection achieved for minors. Hence, based on his analysis of user behavior or internet use trends, the resulting imbalance suggests that these laws may not withstand constitutional evaluation.
A March 2025 working paper from researchers at New York University and several universities also used Google Trends data to conclude that age verification laws are ineffective because users have two more choices to go around the restrictions. The first is to use a VPN to mask their geographic location, and the second is to find alternatives.
FURTHER READINGS AND REFERENCES
- Ford, D. S. 12 November 2025. “Unintended Consequences of Age Verification Laws: Evidence from Search Behavior.” Perspectives: Phoenix Center for Advanced Legal & Economic Public Policy Studies. Available via PDF
- Lang, D., Listyg, B., Ross, B. V., Musquera, A. V., and Sanderson, Z. March 2025. Do Age-Verification Bills Change Search Behavior? A Pre-Registered Synthetic Control Multiverse. Springer Science and Business Media LLC. DOI: 21203/rs.3.rs-6190162/v1